The Japanese recognized that Allied occupation of the Marianas, western Caroline Islands (Palau or Yap), or the Vogelkopf (Bird’s Head) of New Guinea would penetrate what the Japanese defined as their inner defense perimeter. Navy have better intelligence support than Operation Forager and the Battle of the Philippine Sea. The bottom line would be that not even at Midway did the U.S. King rather, it was just an accurate summation of what was about to happen, and would lead to the largest carrier battle in history. Thus, it was not a surprise to either Nimitz or Chief of Naval Operations Ernest J. Layton’s assessment was based on extensive intelligence derived from Ultra cryptanalysis (code-breaking) intelligence, communications traffic analysis, and other intelligence over the previous several months that had been presented to senior commanders. Layton’s prediction that the battle would commence on 17 June was off by a day (it commenced 18 June). Layton stated the Japanese force would include nine aircraft carriers (correct), six battleships (there were five), and other escorts. B-29 bomber, something the Imperial Japanese Navy could not allow to happen. Loss of Saipan would put Tokyo, and the emperor, within range of the new U.S. actions in the Marianas as a full-scale landing, not just a carrier raid, which would trigger Japanese navy plans for the “decisive battle,” upon which the fate of the empire depended. Nevertheless, Layton argued that the commander in chief of the Japanese Combined Fleet, Admiral Soemu Toyoda, correctly interpreted U.S. Navy commanders, as the Japanese carrier force had not sortied for battle since the Battle of Santa Cruz in October 1942. There was some degree of skepticism among senior U.S. hands via Filipino guerillas several months earlier. On 14 June 1944, Commander Edwin Layton, the Pacific Fleet intelligence officer, briefed Pacific Fleet commander Admiral Chester Nimitz that the Japanese Navy was about to execute a modified version of the “Z-plan,” which had fallen into U.S.
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